Ask The "Experts": Is Mufi Hannemann’s Victory A Sure Thing?

Hawaii’s political pundits are all over the 2008 Mayoral Primary like white on rice. So many of them – ranging from newspaper columnists to University of Hawaii political scientists – seem so quick to pronounce political doom upon candidate Dr. Panos Prevedouros and almost certain victory upon incumbent Mayor Mufi Hannemann. After all, with three million dollars, screaming groupies and the support of both labor unions and rail contractors, how could incumbent Hannemann possibly lose?

Well, before you listen to Hawaii’s political “experts” on the surety of Hannemann’s victory and the impossibility of a Prevedouros sweep, I put together a list of other political “experts” you can talk to and ask whether or not they believe that victory is inescapable. So what “experts” on victory should we send an inquiry email to? Well, let’s start with …

1. Everyone who was sure that the New England Patriots would win Super Bowl XLII.
2. Everyone who thought that Mitt Romney was sure to win the 2008 GOP Nomination for President.
3. Everyone who thought that Hillary Clinton was sure to win the 2008 DNC Nomination for President.
4. Everyone who whispered at the Hawaii State Capitol in 2006 that we ought not stand in the way of Nestor Garcia or Ron Menor, as either one of them were sure to be Hawaii’s next Congressional Delegate.
5. Everyone who was sure that Duke Bainum would be Honolulu’s Mayor in 2004.
6. Everyone who thought that Howard Dean – and later Wesley Clark – was sure to be the anointed one to win the 2004 DNC Nomination for President.
7. Everyone who was convinced that the Washington Redskins were an accurate predictor of who wins the Presidency, in that if they ever lose their home game prior to the election, the incumbent party loses the White House. (George W. Bush defeated John Kerry in 2004 and invalidated the cycle.)
8. Everyone who was convinced that 2000 Mexican PAN presidential candidate Vicente Fox could not possibly defeat the power of Mexico’s nearly century-long established majority party, the PRI. (Vincente Fox won by a majority and broke the PRI.)
9. Everyone who was convinced that “idiot” Republican candidate for Texas Governor George W. Bush could not defeat incumbent Democrat Ann Richards. (And while we’re at it, everyone who said he wouldn’t get elected in 2000).
10. Everyone who was convinced that Republican Presidential candidate Thomas Dewey would beat Democratic incumbent Harry Truman.

Hmm, come to think of it, maybe Mufi Hannemann’s political pundits ought to quiet down and wait for every vote to be counted before they discount the 900,000 people on Oahu, most of whom are so radical, independent, and impossible to consistently and reliably predict that the Honolulu Advertiser political writers couldn’t accurately predict what plate they’d order from Zippy’s list of lunch specials, let alone determine how they’ll choose the future mayor of Honolulu …